April began like a whirlwind tornado of bravado and unabashed optimism at the prospect of a sheet full of greens. For the uninitiated, a green mark on the spreadsheets herein tracks consistency (daily). The ability to spend time on a set of mini-goals that are important to me.
There were high notes including: a PB on the running track & writing new music.
There were low notes: fasting in particular is a promethean thorn in the backside.
I am astounded at the power of streaks. ‘Being on a roll’ pushes you to do crazy things to keep it going. Known as the Hot Hand Phenomenon/Fallacy, it's a precept originally conceived in basketball to explain the hypothesis that previously successful shooting attempts increase the likelihood of scoring in future attempts. I am continually experiencing the cognitive & emotive pull to maintain my streak - it is inexorable. And I marvel at how others use it to inspire action e.g. it’s weaved into the fabric of all the apps I actually use:
- Duolingo (54 day streak), Headspace (22 day streak), Brilliant (12 day streak)
I am a sucker for it. And I am not alone. [note from future self, check out Jonathan Mann and Beeple]
Seth Godin, the father of streaks (he writes & publishes one blog a day, one podcast a week etc), suggests they work by turning an activity into a game; wonderfully captured in this story. The Seinfeld Strategy relies on it.
On the other hand, the Hot Hand phenomenon was critiqued savagely in a 1985 paper by Amos Tversky et al. They surmised that humans are hopelessly incapable of fully conceiving randomness, thus, develop irrational assumptions. They outline a number of bias’ clouding our judgement (confirmation bias, clustering illusion & others chief amongst them) that make us susceptible to believing in Hot Hands.
Take the coin toss:
- We know there are 50-50 odds heads or tails in the long run. However, if a sequence of either happens lots, we tend to reject the randomness we know to be true and gamble away our life savings! The Gambler's fallacy can be a dangerous bias.
This strand of research is fascinating to track as it evolves. Recent works have in fact shown significant evidence of streaks! They form the guiding philosophy of momentum investing.
Back to the matter at hand: progress. I love this quote from Denzel Washington: "Without commitment we will never start. Without discipline and consistency we will never finish".
One thing I’ve come to terms with this month:
going really intense everyday isn’t a longevity strategy
I mentioned previously that one bad night’s sleep is actually fine, so long as the week averages at a healthy hourly number (7 for me). The same can be said of training: so long as intensity averages out at a healthy number over time, that drives progress. Take running - I hit a 5k PB (17m 52s) that wiped me out & inhibited optimal training the next day. Or Wim Hof, I hit a 2m 20s breath hold but have then put off doing it thereafter with any regularity as its given me some form of PTSD (1min 40 secs is comfortable). Or planks, if I go gradually I believe I can build up to five mins at the end of the year (currently 2 mins 30 secs is comfortable). But if I kill myself doing five mins now (technically possible but would be murder) then i’ll not do any more that week! A buddy of mine (sandman) needed to meditate for an hour to achieve a Five Minute plank.
New addition is the food diary! I was inspired by Eliud Kipchoge ‘To be successful is not a chance, it's a choice’. For me to hit that 3 hour marathon, I'll need to manage nutrition super effectively. First step: tracking it. The fasting regime has taken some getting used to (hungry!) but I feel better for it. Breakfast really does actually feel like I am breaking a fast.
My weight hasn’t changed much this month. I am going to push the fasting schedule further, and close the feeding window in June. April & May keep it between 12pm - 8pm. June it will be 2pm - 8pm i.e. a daily 6 hour feeding window with 18 hours fasting. My main preoccupation with weight here is speed, a 2014 study found that the optimal BMI for male 800m runners was between 20 and 21, while it dropped between 19 and 20 for male 10,000m and marathon runners. Mine is currently around 25! Though I know BMI doesn’t take into account lean muscle or body fat. Runners World have a great article on healthy race weight - another indicator. For men anything less than 5% body fat is essential fat. Between 5 - 10% is where athletes lie. Anything between 11 - 14% is a general fitness level. 15 - 20% indicates good health. Anything over 21% body fat composition is overweight.
“Don’t stop when you’re tired, stop when you’re done”. David Goggins
It seems I am quoting this guy every month now. A constant inspiration. Particularly the insight at the heart of this quote which I believe is deeply embedded in the psyche of all the greats you care to mention e.g. Marie Curie, Edison, Franklin, Ali, Eliud, Honnold, Mandela...
An analogy struck me the other day capturing this: Time Trials (e.g. on Mario Kart). You complete a lap. The game records that lap. Next lap, you race against that ghost version of you from the previous lap. You only beat You with better time. So if, on an ensuing lap, you:
- Stop, for even one second, to celebrate → Ghost (previous) you is already ahead.
- Now you have to work like crazy to catch up, let alone overtake.
- Stay exactly the same as before, make no changes
- Self Talk: “it worked for me before, if it aint broke dont fix it - right?”.
- Assuming everything goes as it did (it wont) and nothing bad or unexpected happens (it will) then the BEST result you can hope for is a draw.
Now the key question: what the hell are you even doing in the race if the best you can hope for is a draw, most likely a loss 😢. At least in a real race, against other people, bad things could happen to them too (need a poo or fall over) so you have a chance. In the race against yourself - it never ends! In a race against the person you could become - it never ends! In the race against you of last year, last month, last week, yesterday….It. Never. Ends.
I’m not sure I even want it to end. So, that being said, I’ve started to look at impossible goals for next year: Human Flag, Iron Cross, Backflip, Saxophone, Drums etc as if there’s one thing emerging with clarity regarding goals I work on consistently, it's this:
At first they feel - Impossible.
After a while they feel - Improbable.
Sooner or later, they feel - Inevitable.
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Pocket King Guthrie
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Run 5km Nominate 5 people Donate £5 [Melissa’s sis knighted!]
Big day at the track
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Park day out with Rob N Gill
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Catan with Watson and GROB, robbed of the victory
